← TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
Water FractalTier 2
at TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
decks
2
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
10-4-2
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1413
· median 1413
· range 1384–1442
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1352
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.5% | -22.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
